The early weather forecast shows four Dome games, nothing colder than 37 in any of 12 other games and likely rain in only one (Dolphins at Patriots).
With just two weeks to go in the regular season, let’s see if we can keep rolling with our best bets and get back above 60 percent. Come along for the ride as we begin our Happy New Year!
NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of late Tuesday night) are provided by Caesars Sportsbook .
THE WEEK 17 BEST BETS
HOME TEAM in CAPS
1) ML parlay, DETROIT over Chicago and San Francisco over LAS VEGAS at -112
WHEN: Bears at Lions on Sunday at 1 p.m.; 49ers at Raiders on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. THE BET: $33.80 to win $30.
First, this basically is the same as playing a teaser with better value, as we’re getting six points from each side for -112 instead of the usual -120 fee.
For the first leg, the Lions are coming off a horrific performance at Carolina and could be seeing their crazy dreams of making the playoff slip away. and even though they finish with Green Bay next week in a game that very well could decide who gets the seventh and final postseason spot in the NFC, they cannot and will not look ahead past a division rival that has a shot at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
There is talk swirling that Justin Fields might not play for Chicago, but even if he does, the Bears are incredibly banged up and can’t stop this kind of offense (as proven in the first game in Chicago in November – a 31-30 Detroit victory).
Can’t see the Bears putting up the same kind of fight in this one they did back then.
SCORE PREDICTION: Lions (-6) 36, Bears 24. (Over 52.)
This leg was a little more difficult to choose, and we would never take San Francisco -6 as a best bet in this spot. It’s too tough to speculate how motivated the 49ers will be with almost no shot at the top seed while being locked into playing either the Giants or the seventh seed (Washington/Detroit/Green Bay) at home in the opening week of the playoffs.
That being said, the Raiders are coming off their “reality strikes” game, in which whatever postseason hopes they had were dashed in Pittsburgh on Christmas Eve, which also puts their motivation level in question at an even higher level.
What this pick comes down to is the 49ers simply being a better football team, regardless of what they’re playing for and they haven’t lost on the road since that fluke of flukes in Atlanta in mid-October.
SCORE PREDICTION: 49ers (-6) 24, Raiders 17. (Under 44.5.)
2) Teaser, Carolina +9 over TAMPA BAY and Cleveland +8 over WASHINGTON
WHEN: Both games Sunday at 1 p.m. THE BET: $36 to win $30.
While I think the Panthers are the better team and the 21-3 victory over Tampa Bay in Week 7 was no fluke, it’s still tough to think Tom Brady won’t have a little extra juice in this one with the division title potentially on the line. In other words, I trust Carolina to at least keep it close.
SCORE PREDICTION: Panthers (+3) 19, Bucs 15. (Under 39.)
Weather won’t be a factor here, and this could be the game Watson gets a little going with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones if the Browns’ O-line keeps Chase Young out of the backfield.
SCORE PREDICTION: Browns (+2) 20, Commanders 17. (Under 40.5.)
3) Pittsburgh ML (+140) over BALTIMORE
WHEN: Sunday at 8:20 p.m. THE BET: $20 to win $28.
Stop me if you have heard this one before: In his 17th season as Steelers coach, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. There’s only one way to continue that streak, and that is either to win his last two games or win and tie.
I see Pittsburgh coming out at their best, and I think that’s good enough to win against a team that has struggled five weeks in a row against opponents who now have a combined record of 29-46.
SCORE PREDICTION: Steelers (+3) 21, Ravens 16. (Over 36.)
4) HOUSTON +4 over Jacksonville
WHEN: Sunday at 1 p.m. THE BET: $11.
“Here we go again,” you’re thinking. Yeah, yeah, my failure in picking Jaguars games this season has been well documented, but I simply cannot buck facts such as the ones that defend the Texans here, despite how well Jacksonville has played as of late.
SCORE PREDICTION: Texans 27, Jaguars 23. (Over 43.5.)
5) Over 44 in New Orleans at PHILADELPHIA
WHEN: Sunday at 1 p.m. THE BET: $11.
I was all prepared to take the Eagles at -6.5 before the sharps bet it up to a full touchdown, which forced me to back off of the spread as a best bet. That being said, this is a terrible matchup for a Saints team that finally won back-to-back games against a really bad Atlanta team playing for 2023 and a dysfunctional Cleveland squad whose starting quarterback remains in preseason mode.