ORCHARD PARK — The NFL draft is the most unpredictable event in sports. But there are always a few clues and guarantees when draft day arrives.
Not this year.
Miami quarterback Cam Ward appears to be the choice for the Tennessee Titans with the first pick, but after that is free for all. Penn State’s Abdul Carter and Colorado’s Travis Hunter are locks to go in the top-10 (and likely top-five), but there are no guarantees after that.
Two days before the draft, general manager Brandon Beane had a difficult time making sense of the unpredictability. Beane said he didn’t have 30 players with a first-round grade (teams never do) and the consensus is that this year’s class doesn’t have the top-end talent last year’s draft did.
Picking late in the first round makes teams more apt to trade back than up, just as the Bills did last year. But a smaller number of players with first-round grades could create more incentive to trade up.
“There’s as many different ways it could go this year as I can remember,” Beane said. “… The players we’re looking to trade up — players we love, fits a need and the value that makes sense. If not, and the board’s getting wiped, then we’re looking to go back. How far back do you want to go?”
Setting the board
Beane concurred with the prevailing belief that the Bills have more holes to fill defensively than offensively. He also said it was a strong draft for defensive linemen, edge rushers and defensive tackles alike.
The two positions of need for the Bills are defensive tackle and cornerback. Penetrating defensive tackles — like Ed Oliver — typically hold greater value because they can play three downs, but that’s not what the Bills need.
Nine defensive tackles have been taken in the first round over the last five years and only two were 1-technique run stuffers. Meanwhile, 20 cornerbacks have been taken in the first round during the same stretch.
Beane sees the value in a lane-clogging defensive tackle, but also said they typically don’t hold as much value as a tackle that can get sacks. But a tackle who can play 2 ½ downs by pushing the pocket to create sacks for others and two or three per year himself is also valuable.
“I think it’s just how impactful one is versus the other,” Beane said. “… We paid (Tre’Davious White) as the No. 1 guy … he would be more valuable than a number of defensive tackles. Probably not more valuable than Aaron Donald, no disrespect to him.”
When draft analysts evaluate prospects, they are looking solely at the player. And for the most part, they are looking at what the player has done or if he’s got the physical traits to do something different in the NFL
But When the Bills build their draft board, it’s based on how they would fit the team. If a cornerback only plays man-to-man coverage in college, was it because he didn’t have the instincts to play zone or was it the scheme? The Bills are talking with coaches and scouts to see if a player might fit even if the college tape didn’t show it.
Positions of need also fit into that grading process.
An offensive tackle or a quarterback isn’t going to hold the same value to the Bills this year because they aren’t pressing needs for the team. There are also certain situations the Bills won’t pass up depth if the value is worth the pick.
The Bills took defensive end A.J. Epenesa in the second round of the 2020 draft and then took Greg Rousseau in the first and Boogie Basham in the second the following year. They drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round less than a year after extending Dawson Knox.
A year after taking linebacker Terrel Bernard in the third round, they selected Dorian Williams in the third. It ended up being a smart decision because Matt Milano suffered significant injuries in 2023 and 2024.
“Even if you have an Aaron Donald on your team, you’re still looking to put somebody aside,” Beane said. “(Defensive tackle) is a positon injuries can happen a lot. And as we rotate guys, you better have the next man ready to roll. So it’s a kind of a different mindset for each position.”
The trade process
Draft day is going to arrive with the same first-round order as when the season ended, something that’s never happened in the common draft era. Beane didn’t take a swing as to why, but insists there will be trades.
Not only are the Bills in an odd spot in the first round, but they have two picks in the back end of the second round, none in the third, two in the fourth and three in the fifth. Part of Beane’s willingness to trade back twice last year was to acquire a third-round pick and now they are slated to have a long wait between the 62nd pick and 109.
The Bills could use a second rounder to make a big jump in the first round or a fourth to move up a few picks. Or they could trade back with one of their second rounders or jump into the third with some of their day three picks.
When Beane moves up it’s because there’s a run on players on his board that meet the value of the pick. Moving back allows him to accrue more picks and attempt to pick a player with the appropriate value.
Beane, of course, loves to move around in the draft, having made 17 in-draft trades since his first with the Bills in 2018. He’s also made eight total trades involving first-round picks during his tenure with the franchise, while nine have occurred since Sean McDermott became head coach in 2017.
“It’s truly about setting your board and having options both ways,” Beane said. “We constantly are talking to people ahead of us, the people behind us and waiting to see how it falls.”
The Bills enter the draft with 10 picks and it would be a surprise if they used them all. Whether they use some to trade up or relinquish some to restock for next year, it doesn’t seem likely that 10 rookies will make the final roster next year.
Eight made the 53-man roster last year, with Daequan Hardy assigned to the practice squad and Travis Clayton placed on injured reserve. But the Bills were rebuilding the roster last season.
Ten of Beane’s picks, nine of which were sixth- or seventh-round selections, haven’t made the final roster coming out of training camp. It’s the product of depth and quality roster building, but it’s one Beane must manage this year.
“I wouldn’t say, ‘Hey, let’s cash these picks in right away and move up three spots,’ and ‘Let’s cash this fifth rounder in and move up two spots in the second round,’” Beane said. “… You never want to turn and pick and go, ‘This kid has not shot to make the roster.’”