Vice President Kamala Harris’s choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate was a safe choice, said two highly regarded political pollsters and other political experts on Tuesday.
The experts also said they were surprised Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was passed over for the slot.
Walz appeals to progressives in the party, Robert Speel, Penn State’s Behrend College professor of political science, said.
“He also has a stronger resume as governor for six years, in Congress before that, and an officer with the Army National Guard for many years,” Speel said. “Shapiro had upset many liberals among Democrats with his support for school vouchers and criticism of protests against Israeli government policies.”
Not getting the pick is a rare loss for Shapiro, Christopher Borick, director of Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinions, said, “but his political future remains bright. If Harris were to lose this fall Shapiro would immediately become one of the frontrunners for 2028 and he could use the next four years to bolster some liabilities and strengthen his chances.”
Chris Ellis, Bucknell professor of political science, said he was surprised Shapiro wasn’t the pick.
“Vice president candidates help a good bit in their home states — even if they don’t matter much anywhere else — and it’s almost impossible for Harris to win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania,” Ellis said. A very popular, moderate governor on the ticket would have gone a long way to putting Pennsylvania in her camp.
“It would have also bought her some credibility with moderates and swing voters, especially on issues like immigration and Israel, which are very much liabilities for Democrats at this point.”
Ellis said Walz is more in line with picking standard, generic, qualified but not exciting running mates.
“He won’t hurt the ticket, but I don’t see him helping that much,” Ellis said. “Like Trump’s pick of JD Vance, this certainly feels like the party trying to appease its base rather than making any strategic considerations.”
Shapiro has political ambitions, and he will be well-positioned as a frontrunner in 2028 if Harris loses, Ellis said.
“If she wins, I can see him in the cabinet at some point,” he said.
Shapiro was probably the victim of internal party division, Franklin & Marshall poll director Berwood Yost said.
“He was not acceptable to the party’s progressive wing,” Yost said. “Still, I don’t think being overlooked hurts his ambitions.”
What Walz means in Pa.
“Ultimately, Waltz brings Harris the most comfortable partner on the ticket,” Borick said. “The most important role for a VP candidate is to be a strong voice for the top of the ticket and to be able to reach portions of the electorate where the presidential nominee may not naturally connect. Walz seems perfectly fit as a compliment to Harris and I think that’s ultimately what got him the nod.”
Yost said Pennsylvania is undoubtedly in play, regardless of who Harris selected as her running mate.
“VP picks don’t usually mean much regarding vote shares, but I did think Shapiro brought specific attributes to the race that could have helped Harris in the state,” he said. “I’m not sure that adding Walz to the ticket does anything to attract state voters to the ticket who wouldn’t already be considering Harris.”
Speel said he’s unsure how many votes, if any, will be decided because of the Walz pick.
“I don’t think Walz will be a major factor when people decide how to vote in November, though he may help in next-door Wisconsin and also in that one Congressional district in Nebraska that Democrats sometimes win,” Speel said. “Walz grew up in rural Nebraska. His veteran status may also help to match Vance’s military service.”
Harris’s pick for VP “demonstrates a degree of confidence on the part of the candidate,” said Susquehanna University political science professor Nick Clark. “She has to win Pennsylvania to win the election and Shapiro was the best candidate to help with that. That she passed him over for the governor of a relatively safe state indicates she thinks she can win Pennsylvania regardless. Walz does not appear to have any glaring negatives. Maybe he can connect with voters and lay out an effective line of attack against Trump and Vance.”
Clark also believes Shapiro will be a frontrunner in 2028 if Harris loses.
“He continues to have a bright future,” Clark said. “He will work hard to elect Harris and that will continue to help him if she does win. Shapiro is early in his career as a national leader and there is much promise there, depending on what happens over the next few years.”