While December ranked in the top 20 for coldest on record in Cumberland and 3.5 degrees colder than average in Garrett County, will January outperform December’s chill? Will snow hounds be on cloud nine heading into mid-winter?
As you read this article on the final Saturday of the year, Western Maryland is finally breaking out of a cold spell, but that doesn’t mean everyone is in shorts and a T-shirt. Temperatures are finally coming back in line with seasonal averages! But, is this a tease from Mother Nature?
The answer, simply, is yes! The positive phase of the Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern is our weather guide this winter. It proved itself with the cold and occasional snow (mainly west of state Route 36) in December. This pattern will reach its peak in January while the polar vortex will weaken. As these two patterns work in tandem, colder than average temperatures are expected once again next month.
The coldest period of weather will likely be Jan. 12-20. This also lines up with the best risk for the biggest snowstorm of the year for the region. Traditionally, our largest winter storms occur several days after the Greenland Block breaks down. That being said, Allegany County averages 8.2 inches of snow in the year’s first month while Garrett County typically sees 30 inches. There is upside risk to snowfall exceeding expectations across the board.
PJM, a regional transmission organization that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in the mid-Atlantic to the Chicago area, issues cold weather alerts when the temperature approaches 10 degrees in any part of its territory. Western Maryland and the Potomac Highlands are included in the PJM footprint.
The cold weather alerts prepare the facilities in the PJM footprint to expect higher demand on electricity due to increased heating demands. This could include a note from your power company to conserve heat and advice to keep your house warmer. Save on energy costs by making sure ceiling fan blades are rotating clockwise to efficiently circulate warm air around each room, shutting curtains during cloudy, windy days to avoid a draft coming into your house and/or keeping doors that open to the outdoors shut as much as possible.
Based on historical peak winter load dates, Jan. 5-7 and Jan. 24-30 stands out as the most common dates when heaters are put on full-throttle across the mid-Atlantic and Chicago footprint. I wouldn’t be surprised if the load strain on PJM reaches into the top 10 of all-time around either Jan. 7 or 20.
The northern Rockies into the central and northern Plains, Midwest and East will be colder than average. Central and southern California into Texas will be the warmer spots in January if you want an escape.
While snowfall will likely trend above average in Western Maryland and the Potomac Highlands, the ski season will also shine with natural snow from the Cascades into the central and northern Rockies and Midwest (where applicable). Less than average rain and mountain snow in southern California combined with warm temperatures and occasional windy weather will spark fresh wildfires. Rainfall will also trend below average in the Southwest.
There is a good chance the weather will trigger two-hour delays and a few days off in January. Remember to dress in multiple layers to trap body heat. Wearing just one thick winter jacket won’t be as effective as a long-sleeved turtle neck, sweater and then a large winter coat. Only allow pets outside for a limited time for those very cold days. They are impacted by the cold weather, too!
The Hagerstown Town and Country Almanack’s 2025 edition is still on sale if you are interested in purchasing one. Email Jerry Spessard, at jerry.spessard@comcast.net or call him at 301-491-4002.