We move on to Week 8, where we are sure to jinx our seven-game winning streak with totals just by mentioning it. But jinxes be damned!
NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of late Wednesday evening) are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Home team is listed in CAPS.
WEEK 8 BEST BETS
1. CAROLINA (+3) over Houston / Sunday at 1 p.m.
I have been burned multiple times this season already by the Panthers, but there is no way on God’s green Earth the Texans should be laying points against anyone on the road – they simply have not earned that yet.
Frank Reich has given up play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and I expect a big spark.
While an offensive-minded coach in Reich has struggled, the fact the Texans are a surprising 3-3 overshadows the fact DeMeco Ryans has the 25th-ranked defense, and they have been terrible (26th) against the pass.
Look for Bryce Young to finally break it open a bit. Also love the over.
Score: Panthers 29, Texans 24
2. Money line parlay, MIAMI over New England / Sunday at 1 p.m. / and SAN FRANCISCO over Cincinnati / Sunday at 4:25 p.m.
It should be pretty clear to just about everyone who has an iota of a clue that Miami can whip up on the awful teams, but they’re going to struggle with the good ones – especially the ones who can beat up on them upfront. The Patriots are neither of those latter things.
For those who think everything is right with the fighting Belichicks once more, um, think again. These teams played in Week 2 for those who don’t remember, and the Dolphins should have won by more than seven, and that was in Foxborough.
If that’s not enough, here’s your list of recent Dolphins-Pats games in Miami: 20-7 Dolphins, 33-24 Dolphins, 22-12 Dolphins. Get the picture? Miami is 8-2 straight up in the series the past 10 years in Florida, which obviously goes back well into the Tom Brady days.
If New England beats Buffalo and Miami in successive weeks, that likely would qualify as the most unlikely combined outcome of the year by a single team. Ain’t gonna happen.
Score: Dolphins (-9) 30, Patriots 14
The super bettors saw Cincy go from +5.5 to +3.5 when they heard the news Brock Purdy was in concussion protocol, and they ran to the window like herded cats bolting for their Halloween dish of fresh, bloody kidney. For me, it’s an excellent chance to get San Fran at a much better number, even if Brock Purdy, who is in concussion protocol, doesn’t play.
Coming back home after two rough games in the Midwest, neither loss should have been as big a surprise as some made them out to be. If anything, the way the public had been betting the Niners and the lines holding steady in the Minnesota game, it was clear Vegas wanted you to bet SF last Monday night.
Now, it’s the opposite. They’re begging Joe Q. Public to take the Bengals here, and they’re complying in droves. If you’re going to give me Miami against a bad team and CMC and the 49ers against a mediocre one – both at home – I’ll take that every day knowing it’s the right play.
Score: 49ers (-3.5) 23, Bengals 17
3. Teaser, DALLAS -0.5 over LA Rams / Sunday at 1 p.m. / and LA CHARGERS -2.5 over Chicago / Sunday at 8:20 p.m.
Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay two teams in a “teaser” and get 6 points of cushion for each bet. However, it costs -120 to play and – like a parlay – both legs must hit to cash the ticket.
At first, I thought this was an auto Dallas pick, as that 6.5 sometimes triggers an “insta bet” in my brain, as my first inclination was that 6.5-point favorites had to cover by a significant percentage. However, it turns out that isn’t necessarily true. In fact, the favorite is 25-22 ATS with such a spread since the start of the 2020 season (although they’re 3-1 this season).
Instead, I’ll go with the Cowboys simply to win in the first leg, as 6.5-point favorites are 34-13 in teasers over that same course of time. They have dominated in their first two home games – 30-10 over the Jets and 38-3 over the Patriots. Also, they have won 10 consecutive games at Jerry’s World, not having lost since the 2022 season opener against Tom Brady.
Also, off a bye week, Dallas is 23-11 with three wins in four seasons and seven of the past 10. Meanwhile, Coach Mike McCarthy is 11-5 off a bye week straight up in his career.
The Rams are a curious team, as they have been nearly what I predicted them to be – better than most thought, but probably not good enough to make the playoffs. Matthew Stafford has been inconsistent, and this Cowboys pass rush should be a little too much for him.
Score: Cowboys (-6.5) 33, Rams 20
Brandon Staley might be the worst coach in the NFL and is one of the favorites to be the first to be fired this season, but I still don’t get the Chargers. They hang with the Dolphins and probably should have won, then they lose to the Titans. They win at Minnesota and slip by Las Vegas. They can’t hold on vs. Dallas and flop around against Kansas City.
This team has no business not being 4-2 or at least 3-3, but we all know what the late, great Denny Green said: “You are what your record says you are.” And the Chargers are 2-4.
Well, make that soon to be 3-4. I mean, this Tyson Bageant story has been kind of cool and all, but this no-name backup quarterback and the Bears’ defense cannot get past the Bolts. And Bageant should come back to Earth very quickly here.
When was the last time this team won a game away from home west of Chicago? Try Week 16 of the 2021 season at Seattle. Can’t see them going to L.A. and staying within a field goal.
Score: Chargers (-8.5) 31, Bears 20