How will the Patriots go from a current roster of 88 down to 53?
The answer will unfold for us over the next month-plus as training camp opens outside of Gillette Stadium on Wednesday. Here’s a look at New England’s position-by-position breakdown as the team readies to strap on the pads later this week.
Offensive Line
Roster Locks: Cole Strange, David Andrews, Mike Onwenu, Riley Reiff, Calvin Anderson, Sidy Sow, Jake Andrews
On the Bubble: Trent Brown, Atonio Mafi, James Ferentz, Bill Murray, Kody Russey
Future IG Influencers: Conor McDermott, Chasen Hines, Andrew Steuber
Positional Thoughts: Brown is obviously the giant (pun intended) story line of camp for this group. Is he happy? Is he in shape and healthy? If he is – he was not in 2022 – this might be the best positional group in camp. At his best, he’s a dominant left tackle, and he’s playing for a contract (likely his last), so the motivation should be there.
David Andrews is a proven veteran leader. Mike Onwenu is a pro’s pro. There is depth and competition, even if second-year man Cole Strange does not progress from his rugged rookie year. But it all hinges on Brown. Plenty of eyes will be on him on Wednesday.
Tight Ends
Roster Locks: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Anthony Firkser
On the Bubble: None
Future IG Influencers: Matt Sokol, Scotty Washington, Johnny Lumpkin
Positional Thoughts: Solid is likely the best way to speak about this positional group. Henry (91 catches, 11 TDs) has not been spectacular, but you can make the case that he’s at least earning his $12.5 million a year.
Gesicki has shown plenty of flash at Miami. He’s been versatile and will play a ton flexed off the line in the slot, causing matchup issues. Something to watch for early in camp with him? Will he block in the run game? Is he committed? That may have been an issue with the Dolphins. Firkser, who caught a TD for the Titans in the 2019 playoff win over the Patriots, is a solid pro and great fit as the No. 3 guy.
Quarterbacks
Roster Locks: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe
On the Bubble: Trace McSorley, Malik Cunningham
Future IG Influencers: None
Positional Thoughts: First, to the superfluous. Keep an eye early on whether Cunningham is wearing the red jersey in camp. Is he an athlete/receiver or is he a quarterback, albeit one that is a bit of a project. To be honest, other than his relationship with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien at Penn State, I’m not sure why McSorley is here.
As for the top two guys, they will be the focal point of camp. The folks who love Jones will tell you how amazing he looks again, now that he has a real offensive coordinator. His detractors will count the completions in practice and let you know that Zappe is 2-0 as a starter in the NFL and is breathing down Mac’s neck for snaps. Buckle up, boys. August is going to be a thrill ride.
Running backs
Roster Locks: Rhamondre Stevenson
On the Bubble: Kevin Harris, Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong Jr.
Future IG Influencers: JJ Taylor
Positional Thoughts: As of the end of the week, two open roster spots remained, despite Bill Belichick’s open auditions this week of Darrell Henderson and Leonard Fournette among others. Don’t be surprised if the team adds a back or two to the mix before they hit the practice fields for real.
Stevenson is a top-half tier back in the NFL in his prime. He’s expected to take on more of a lead role now that Damien Harris is in Buffalo. Montgomery’s health, or lack of it, hamstrung this team last year. He needs to stay on the field, and I don’t expect Belichick to put up with much on the injury front from him, if things get a little sticky in camp.
Strong and Harris, both 2022 draft picks, will be asked to step up into a real role. They combined for 152 rushing yards as rookies. Taylor has hung around, bouncing on and off the roster to the practice squad, but it was telling that the Patriots flipped cornerback Marcus Jones to offense a year ago when they needed a spark. Time is likely running out on JJ.
Wide Receivers
Roster Locks: DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Matt Slater
On the Bubble: Kayshon Boutte
Future IG Influencers: Tre Nixon, Demario Douglas, Ed Lee
Positional Thoughts: Let’s start with the rookie, the enigmatic sixth-round pick, Boutte, out of LSU. On the field, he showed signs of being special in college. He also dropped down into the sixth round, so that tells me that there are some real, off-field questions. Good news for Boutte. Without DeAndre Hopkins signing, it’s a thin receiver group.
Don’t be shocked when this team goes to three-receiver sets if the tight end Gesicki is actually lined up at the third receiver spot. The team will likely keep five receivers, not including Slater, so opportunity knocks.
Now for the regulars. Parker and Smith-Schuster have the inside track on the two starting spots. Both guys have started 19 of a possible 34 games the past two seasons. And Smith-Schuster is playing on his third team in three years. Bourne oozes explosion but is yet to put it together as a lead guy, neither here nor in San Francisco. And Thornton did not prove as a rookie that he belongs at this level. It’s thin here. With the injury woes of the recent past, it should be a true area of concern. Expect to see Marcus Jones and Malik Cunningham this summer at these spots – potentially out of necessity.
Defensive Line
Roster Locks: Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise Jr., Keion White
On the Bubble: Carl Davis Jr., Sam Roberts, Daniel Ekuale
Future IG Influencers: Jeremiah Pharms Jr., Justus Tavai
Positional Thoughts: Guy’s absence at OTAs and mini-camp was a reported contract issue and is a point of concern. He’s been a solid team guy and anchor up front, albeit one that may have shown signs of losing a step in 2022.
Barmore played just 10 games a year ago, due to injury. Part of me would also like to know why this No. 2 pick in 2021 has started only five games in two years. Is there an issue with his work ethic, fitness or effort? He’s lost snaps to Godchaux, who is a pro but is also a journeyman. Wise has been solid – a guy this defense relies on as a leader. White is a second-round pick who is expected to impact the pass rush early. The bubble trio will likely battle for two spots, meaning the third guy is penciled in for the practice squad.
Overall, it’s a professional group that is stout against the run. There will be no references to the Richard Seymour-Vince Wilfork-Ty Warren group 20 years ago, but they do their job. Barmore’s emergence, something that was expected last year but never happened, would be nice this fall.
Linebackers
Roster Locks: Matt Judon, Josh Uche, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Chris Board, Marte Mapu
On the Bubble: Anfernee Jennings, DaMarcus Mitchell, Ronnie Perkins, Mack Wilson, Terez Hall
Future IG Influencers: Calvin Munson, Olakunie Fatukasi
Positional Thoughts: This position, both inside and out, will be the source of some serious competition throughout August. All the bubble battles should be fierce with up to five of them making the 53-man roster and the other(s) heading to the practice squad. Judon and Uche combined for 26.5 sacks last year, although only 6 came against playoff teams.
Bentley is the defensive leader, a low-budget Jerod Mayo who make sure that 5-yard runs stay 5-yard runs and don’t turn into 15-yard runs. He’s not an impact guy, but he’s a stay-at-home necessity on first down. Tavai delivered a career-best 69 tackles a year ago and is a serviceable type. Board, a special-teamer by trade, is Belichick’s guy. And Mapu fits the new, sleeker, more athletic trend at linebacker around the NFL, although he’s more “safety size” than you might like.
Cornerbacks
Roster Locks: Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones (depending, of course, on his legal proceedings), Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Jalen Mills, Myles Bryant
On the Bubble: Quandre Mosely, Isaiah Bolden, Shaun Wade, Rodney Randle Jr., Ameer Speed
Future IG Influencers: None
Positional Thoughts: The consensus here is that you can never have too many corners. They’re the athletes and even the longest of shots, guys like Mosely, who played in one game last year, and Randle, will likely hang around through the year, either on the active squad or practice squad.
Gonzalez, the top pick, will have more than his share of the summer spotlight. The Sauce Gardner comparisons sparked on draft day and grew into a Canadian forest fire-like conflagration when the team’s social media group began pumping out his training videos. That’s not fair to the 17th overall pick and neither will Belichick’s planking him out on the left corner and telling him he’s got Diggs, Hill, et al when the bullets start flying for real. But that’s life in the NFL. And this football team needs a true No. 1 corner.
Speaking of bullets, Jack Jones’ airport woes certainly add stress to the already volatile situation at corner. Jon Jones gets paid like a quality slot corner. He is a quality slot corner. So, please leave him there. Bryant and Mills, each of whom could see auditions at the safety spot vacated by Devin McCourty, are just guys. And Marcus Jones, at just 5-foot-8 (that’s generous), had much greater success on offense/special teams than he did on defense as a rookie.
If Gonzalez is, as the kids say, “the real,” this group takes a big step forward. If not, it’s going to be exploited by the quality teams and quarterbacks, as it has been for the last four-to-five years.
Safeties
Roster Locks: Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Adrian Phillips, Cody Davis, Brenden Schooler
On the Bubble: Brad Hawkins, Joshuah Bledsoe, Jourdan Heilig, Raleigh Webb
Future IG Influencers: None
Positional Thoughts: The McCourty vacancy is a huge issue on defense. Dugger, Peppers and Phillips all are effective players, but none has proven to be equipped to play that spot as the single-high, see-the-field, read-the-field, deep center safety. Davis and Schooler are special-teamers, and that may force the need for Bryant or Mills to give it a shot.
I know it’s outside-the-box thinking, but with the way Marcus Jones runs, I might even try him there. People forget – because he was such an intelligent player – how fast D-Mac actually was. He covered a ton of ground out there. Dugger still hasn’t proven he can cover, but he does so much else at the highest of levels. He needs to be on the field every down. Phillips and Peppers pick up the pieces as the in-the-box kind of safety that can shadow other teams’ backs and tight ends while winning their share of battles in the run game. The bubble guys are special-teamers in waiting and project types, including Webb who might get some run at receiver, his natural position, if the need arises in camp.
Specialists
Roster Locks: Joe Cardona
On the Bubble: Nick Folk, Chad Ryland, Corliss Waitman, Bryce Baringer
Future IG Influencers: Tucker Addington
Positional Thoughts: Belichick gave Cardona the biggest contract in long-snapper history with a million-dollar signing bonus. He’s the lone lock. Ryland, the kicker, and Baringer, the punter, were draft picks this past spring, meaning Belichick will give them every opportunity to make the roster. Waitman has 19 games under his belt as a punter and put up solid numbers with the Broncos last year. Folk has been super steady but is now 38. He missed eight kicks (32 of 37 FGs and 32 of 35 PATs) last year. The competition for both spots is wide open.