Gov. Kathleen C. Hochul would likely be able to beat potential primary challengers to keep her job in 2026, according to the latest Siena College Research Institute poll. In a three-way race for the Democratic nomination, Hochul pulls support from 46% of Democratic voters, well ahead of her Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado’s 11% or downstate U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres’ 10%. Both Delgado and Torres have broken from the state’s top elected Democrat in recent months and openly signaled they’re considering running against Hochul.
SPLIT BY PARTY
Overall, the picture of Hochul’s political health isn’t rosy. While the governor does well with Democrats—who give her good marks in the areas of job approval and favorability—the SCRI poll found that her unpopularity with independents and Republicans sinks her statewide rankings. “Two thirds of Democrats approve of the job Hochul is doing as governor, however, 79% of Republicans and 59% of independents disapprove,” said Steven Greenberg, pollster for the research institute. “Currently, 34% of voters say they would reelect Hochul, while 56% want ‘someone else.’ Among Democrats, they would reelect Hochul 51-40%.”
It helps that both Torres and Delgado are largely unknown among the ranks of voters in New York. Delgado is unknown by 65% of voters, Torres is unknown by 67% of voters, and 59% of Democrats specifically.
GOP HOPEFULS
From the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents parts of the Hudson Valley, is openly flirting with a run for governor, but he is similarly unknown by a majority of voters. Only 18% of voters polled reported they approved of Lawler, 19% disapprove, and 63% don’t know who he is, with 68% of Republicans reporting they’re unfamiliar with him.
Another Republican seeking the party’s nod for the governor’s mansion is Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who is unknown by 74% of New Yorkers and 69% of Republicans. “Not surprisingly, the big winner in a potential 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary is ‘don’t know,’ 60%, given two potential candidates who are largely unknown to New York Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Among Republicans ready to take an early position, Lawler leads Blakeman 25-13%.”
Among all voters, Hochul gets good marks on three issues: protecting constitutional rights, ensuring access to health care, and improving public safety. But she gets poor marks on affordability, an issue that state Democrats have hammered home as their “top priority” this year.
Hochul also gets poor marks from all voters on how she’s addressed the corruption allegations against New York City Mayor Eric Adams, how she has established her relationship with the Trump administration, and how she has handled the ongoing corrections officers strike at prisons across New York. “On each of these issues, a majority or plurality of Democrats approve of the job that Hochul’s doing, while a majority of Republicans and a majority or plurality of independents disapprove of the job she’s done on most of the issues, except independents are split on protecting constitutional rights and access to health care,” Greenberg said.
Her whole-picture job approval rate is currently 46% positive, 48% negative—which is the closest it’s been to 50% approval in over a year.
DC GRADES
Voters’ opinions on figures in Washington, D.C., are also broadly negative. A majority of New York voters don’t approve of the job President Donald J. Trump is doing overall, and his approval numbers with Republicans dropped from 86% positive in January to 78% positive this month. “Trump’s overall job approval rating may be 13 points underwater, and he gets similar negative grades for unifying Americans, enhancing America’s reputation abroad, and reducing the cost of living, but a majority of voters approve of the job he’s doing to combat the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.,” Greenberg said. “Voters are evenly divided on whether they approve or disapprove of Trump’s actions to fix the country’s immigration system.”
As for his proposals, Trump gets mixed grades from voters in his native New York. His bid to make English the official U.S. language is broadly popular across ideological lines. His bid to take back the Panama Canal is unpopular with most voters but does well with Republicans and independents, and it’s the same story for his cuts to the federal workforce. But his bids to take over Gaza and Canada are both widely unpopular with clear majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and independents. “Even Republicans are not with Trump on making Canada the 51st state, opposed by 68% of all voters, or owning and redeveloping Gaza into the ‘Riviera of the Middle East,’ opposed by 58% of all voters,” Greenberg said. “When it comes to significant federal workforce cuts and taking back the Panama Canal, at least 60% of Democrats oppose each, at least 60% of Republicans support each, as do a plurality of independents, 38% in both cases.”
In Congress, the Democratic minority is polling relatively poorly, with 45% of voters saying they have a good opinion to 48% negative. The Republican majority are worse off, with a 34% positive, 56% negative rating by New York voters.
This poll was conducted between March 2 and 6, reaching 806 registered New York voters via landline, cellphone, and an online polling platform. The overall margin of error is 4.3% in either direction.