Josh Allen’s numbers are undeniable.
Only Patrick Mahomes has more passing touchdowns, total touchdowns, passing yards, total yards and wins than Allen since he entered the NFL in 2018. Mahomes is a two-time MVP, as is Allen’s classmate Lamar Jackson.
Three times Allen has finished in the top-five of the MVP voting in the previous four seasons and has never received more than 30% of the votes. Even in 2020, Allen’s best statistical season, he was the runner-up to Aaron Rodgers and only received 8% of the votes.
All kinds of reasons for keeping Allen off the MVP pedestal have been floated around, from turnovers, strength of wins and strength of the team around him. After the Buffalo Bills overhauled the offense, Allen is the lone star on the team.
With six games remaining, Allen holds the best odds to win the MVP, according to DraftKings. Turnovers are down, talent around him is down and now Allen has a chance to beef his resume with upcoming games against the 49ers, Rams and Lions.
The candidates
Josh Allen, quarterback, Bills (+150 odds)Allen is averaging his fewest passing yards per game (231.2) since 2019. He’s currently 22.1 yards from his total last season.
But Allen’s numbers have gone up over the last few games, despite receivers Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel and tight end Dalton Kincaid all missing games. After posting 193.3 yards in the first six games, Allen has put up 276.6 over the last five, while his 18 touchdown passes are tied for sixth in the NFL.
Allen averaged 217.5 yards and 12 total touchdowns in six games against top-10 defenses. But he has just one 300-yard game this season and only Lamar Jackson in 2019 has won an MVP with one 300-yard game since 2013.
History says Allen won’t be able to cover much ground in that category as the last 11 NFL MVPs have combined for 15 300-yard games in 53 December and January regular season games.
Lamar Jackson, quarterback, Ravens (+200)The reigning MVP is scoffing at those who said he couldn’t throw. Not only is Jackson averaging a career-high 254.4 passing yards per game, but he leads the league with 3,053 yards and 27 touchdowns, while throwing just three interceptions.
One knock on Jackson, though, is the Ravens already have more losses (4) than they did all of last year. Another is that Jackson has attempted fewer than 30 passes six times and Baltimore is 6-0 in those games.
The Ravens also have Derrick Henry in the mix, which has lowered Jackson’s rushing yards to 49.9 per game, his lowest since his rookie year. Having the NFL’s No. 2 rusher and still being 8-4 counts for something.
Saquon Barkley, running back, Eagles (+475)The only reason Barkley isn’t the frontrunner is because he’s not a quarterback. The MVP has not been awarded to a running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012 and only four running backs have won the award since 2000.
But Barkley leads the league with 1,392 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns, while also having the most scrimmage yards (1,649). Since being lured away from the Giants in free agency, Barkley has given the Eagles a boost, with Philadelphia averaging 45 more total yards and 65 more yards rushing than a year ago.
Barkley is on pace to shatter Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old single-season rushing record (2,105), as he’s on pace for 2,150. Only half of the eight players to surpass 2,000 yards have won the MVP in the same season, but no player has averaged 100 yards in a game since 2021.
Jared Goff, quarterback, Lions (+700)Goff leads the current betting favorite to win the Super Bowl in an efficient season. Goff is ninth in the league with 251 yards per game and fifth with 20 touchdown passes, while his 72.9 completion percentage currently ranks third all-time for a single season.
The problem for Goff, however, is talent around him. Goff has only attempted 30 passes or more three times this season.
In a Week 2 game against the Cardinals, Goff attempted 55 passes without a touchdown and he threw two interceptions and the Lions lost 20-16. Goff also threw five interceptions and completed 50% of his passes against the Texans and Detroit was still good enough to win.
Patrick Mahomes, quarterback, Chiefs (+1,300)Like Allen, Mahomes is enduring the worst individual season of his career. His 243 yards per game is 18 yards fewer than his previous low of 261.4, recorded last year.
Mahomes is also averaging a career-worst 2.9 interception percentage, as all 10 of Kansas City’s wins have come in one-score games. But it’s never safe to count Mahomes out and he’s capable of going on a heater over the last six weeks.
Kansas City still has a strong chance to join the 2007 Patriots as the only teams to win 16 regular season games, with their final six opponents having a 34-34 combined record. The previous three teams to finish the regular season with one loss have delivered the MVP in New England’s Tom Brady (2007), Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (2011) and Carolina’s Cam Newton (2015).
Where is he?
Derrick Henry, running back, Ravens (+7,000)It’s odd that Henry doesn’t have higher odds given that he’s run for 1,325 yards and an NFL-best 13 rushing touchdowns. But for the same reason Barkley isn’t higher, it’s not a huge shocker.
When Henry ran for 2,027 yards with the Titans in 2020, he didn’t finish in the top-three in MVP voting. But at 30 years old, Henry is on pace for nearly 1,900 yards and the Ravens are 6-0 when he surpasses 100 yards, compared to 2-4 when he doesn’t.
Watch out
Tua Tagovailoa, quarterback, Dolphins (+25,000)This one is a longshot, but if the Dolphins are able to reach the playoffs, Tagovailoa should have a good case. Unlike last year when the Bills rattled off five wins in a row, Allen’s production actually went down.
The Dolphins are 4-3 and average 25 points per game with Tagovailoa, compared to 1-3 and 10 points per game while he was on injured reserve with a concussion. Miami faces opponents with a combined 29-38 record over the next six weeks.