A year ago seems like an eternity. Imagine how that feels for the Buffalo Bills.
Heading into Week 13 last season, the Bills were on their bye. They lost an overtime game to the Philadelphia Eagles after blowing a fourth-quarter lead and another in overtime to fall to 6-6.
A playoff berth seemed unlikely and an AFC East championship unfathomable sitting three games behind the Miami Dolphins. And then, of course, the Bills rattled off five consecutive wins to secure their fourth divisional title in a row and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.
Jump ahead to the present and the Bills enter Week 13 coming out of their bye, a 9-2 record and a four-game lead on the Dolphins. This was supposed to be the year the Bills were finally knocked off their throne, but instead, they are a win from clinching a playoff spot and a win and a Dolphins loss from another AFC East banner.
While the Bills won’t need to win six in a row to get into the playoffs this time around, they might in order to get home-field advantage and the Dolphins are not quite out of the race for the division yet. This is the time to keep their foot on the gas to avoid any chance of a role reversal.
A three-game stretch against the 49ers, Rams and Lions that once seemed to be daunting doesn’t look so tough on paper anymore, but it’s still crucial to come out 2-1. And then there’s the three-game homestretch against the Jets and Patriots (twice).
Laugh at the final three games if you will, but the Bills lost to both teams last season and 14 of 27 games within the division have been decided by one score since 2020. And three of their five losses in the AFC East during that span have come against teams that finished below .500.
“What we talk about is making sure their habits match our goals as a team and certainly their goals as an individual to be the best version of themselves when they come back,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “We’re getting into the back third of the season, if you will. … It’s an important time for sure.”
If there is a team to avoid a slump, though, it’s the Bills and McDermott is 7-0 coming off a bye week since becoming the team’s head coach in 2017. And by time the Bills kickoff against the 49ers Sunday, the calendar will have flipped to December and that’s when they shine.
McDermott’s first three seasons were a slog in December and January, going 6-8. But since 2020, the Bills are 19-2 in those months and outscored opponents by 11.8 points per game.
Some of the late-season success is because the Bills fell into precarious situations in the first half. The Bills went 3-2 in the final month and still needed help to squeak into the playoffs in 2017, then they were 7-6 and trailing the Patriots 13 games into 2021, and then, of course, last season’s run to the finish line.
Avoiding a drop-off over the final six games is promising for the same reasons that Bills unexpectedly already have nine wins. This is not a roster laden with stars, but one with many players who battled for jobs during training camp, are still battling and will likely have to do so again next year.
The Bills have also fostered an environment where goals and expectations are clear. And the Bills have gone out and acquired players to fit into their mold through the draft, free agency and trades.
“Last time I checked, nine wins probably doesn’t get you in the playoffs,” quarterback Josh Allen said after beating the Chiefs. “So going into this bye week, get to enjoy ourselves a little bit. But coming back ready. You know, a hungry team.”
The Bills may also be coming back a healthier team. Tackle Spencer Brown (ankle), receiver Keon Coleman (wrist) and tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) were not expected to be out long-term and all could return against the 49ers.
Receiver Amari Cooper returned against the Chiefs and played with a cast on his left wrist, so another two weeks of rest can only help him. The Bills can open rookie defensive tackle DeWayne Carter’s (wrist) 21-day window to return from injured reserve Saturday, while the Bills expect defensive end Dawuane Smoot (wrist) back before the end of the season.
And then there’s the big fish: linebacker Matt Milano. The All-Pro could make his season debut against the 49ers, but they could sit him one more game before having to decide whether to add him to the active roster or shut him down for the year, which has to be determined after the game.
What Milano can bring to the Bills at this juncture of the season is unknown, especially for a 30-year-old who hasn’t played a football game in 13 months. Not only is Milano recovering from biceps surgery, but he hasn’t played a game since fracturing his leg in Week 5 last season, although adding Milano to the mix can’t hurt.
“We would want to do it,” McDermott said. “If and when we’re given the green light — or he’s given the green light — to go about it the right way.”