VALDOSTA — Forecasters say there is a possibility Lowndes County may be facing a hurricane by the end of the week.
A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico was expected to move north-northwest Tuesday before heading northeast Wednesday and Thursday, becoming first a tropical storm and then Hurricane Helene in the process, statements from the National Weather Service said Monday.
The storm was expected to wind up heading up the eastern side of the Gulf, said Kristian Oliver, a meteorologist for the weather service’s Tallahassee, Fla., office.
Hurricane forecasting is an inexact science, and meteorologists Monday stressed the uncertainty of forecasting the storm’s path days in advance.
The National Weather Service’s forecasts for Valdosta and Tifton officially call for possible tropical storm conditions around both cities — meaning wind speeds of 39-74 mph and heavy rain — Thursday and Thursday night. Oliver said Monday was too early to predict an exact impact point or time.
AccuWeather, a private forecasting firm, took a harder line. Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster, said the best computer models Monday had the storm coming ashore around 5 p.m. Thursday near Apalachicola, Fla., as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds from 111-129 mph. When it moves inland and loses wind speed, it could still approach Valdosta as a Category 1 storm (sustained wind speeds of 74-95 mph), he said.
“There is a chance it could even still be a Category 2 storm (wind speeds at 96-110 mph) in South Georgia,” DaSilva said.
Valdosta is about 150 miles from Apalachicola.
While the weather service expected Valdosta to get 3-4 inches of rain, DaSilva said 8-12 inches was possible, though this could change if the storm shifts significantly either east or west in the coming days.
Because Valdosta would probably be on the east side of the storm’s center when it passes through South Georgia, the city would be at higher risk of tornadoes Tuesday evening, he said. Tornadoes are most likely to form in the northeast quadrant of a hurricane system.
Lowndes County is monitoring the situation and will issue updates as more information comes in, but urges residents to start preparing storm kits now, said Meghan Barwick, county spokeswoman.
If the storm does pass over or near Valdosta as a hurricane, it would be the third such storm in two years to do so.